It’s Christmas weekend, which means, naturally, it’s time to analyze the New York Jets’ draft position odds. Following draft order this season has been a bit different, because even though the Jets have overachieved, we kind of knew they’d be in a top 10 draft slot all year. We even wrote about the top quarterback prospects before the year started.
We are one week closer to closure as the Jets dropped their third game in a row on Sunday, 14-7 to the Chargers. With one week remaining, here’s a full look at Gang Green and the NFL Draft.
Where do things stand now?
As of Tuesday morning, the top 10 is as follows:
- Cleveland Browns (0-15)
- New York Giants (2-13)
- Indianapolis Colts (3-12)
- Cleveland Browns (via Houston Texans, 4-11; .508 strength of schedule)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11; .558 SOS)
- Denver Broncos (5-10; .483 SOS)
- San Francisco 49ers (5-10; .521 SOS)
- New York Jets (5-10; .521 SOS)
- Chicago Bears (5-10; .558 SOS)
- Cincinnati Bengals (6-9)
What games hold significance for the Jets in Week 17?
Aside from the Jets’ season finale against the New England Patriots…
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-11) vs. New Orleans Saints (11-4)
- San Francisco 49ers (5-10) at Los Angeles Rams (11-4)
- Denver Broncos (5-10) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (9-6)
- Chicago Bears (5-10) at Minnesota Vikings (12-3)
How “high” can the Jets get?
Fifth. Here’s how:
- Jets lose AND Buccaneers win AND Broncos win…
- THEN, if the 49ers lose as well, the Jets would need to win a tiebreaker for the fifth spot
If one team has a worse strength of schedule than the other, that team will pick higher. If they are tied, it will come down to a coin flip.
How “low” can the Jets fall?
11th. Here’s how:
- Jets win AND Bears lose AND Bengals lose AND Raiders lose
- The Jets would win a strength-of-schedule tiebreaker with the Dolphins should they tie at 6-10
What’s the most likely outcome?
Wacky scenarios are fun, but in all reality, the Jets will probably lose to the Patriots and hover around the six-to-nine range with the other five-win teams. An upset could change things, but most likely the Jets won’t move more than one or two spots.
Could there be a coin flip?
Of course, because that would be the most fitting way to end this wacky Jets season.
Why? The only team with whom the Jets could tie is the San Francisco 49ers. They’re tied through 16 weeks! Without diving into the numbers too much, there is a way that the two teams can have the same record and own a strength of schedule at .520 each (opponents’ combined record 133-123).
This could potentially make Jacksonville vs. Tennessee an intriguing matchup for the Jets. If the Week 17 predictions of Pittsburgh over Cleveland, Minnesota over Chicago and Atlanta over Carolina hold true, then the Jaguars and Titans game could determine if there would be a coin flip.
To sum it up, if both the Jets and 49ers lose:
- If the Browns OR Jaguars win AND Bears win AND Panthers win: Jets will get a higher pick than the 49ers
- If the Steelers win AND Vikings win AND Falcons win AND Jaguars win: 49ers will get a higher pick than the Jets
- If the Steelers win AND Vikings win AND Falcons win AND Titans win: COIN FLIP!
As Adam Zielonka explained earlier this month, when two teams from opposing conferences tie in both record and strength of schedule, the draft position tie is broken via coin flip at the scouting combine.
What about that Seahawks pick?
Don’t forget that the Jets have Seattle’s second-round pick because of the Sheldon Richardson trade. Right now, that would be pick No. 52 overall, as the Seahawks are in line to earn the 20th pick. However, that could change drastically if Seattle makes the playoffs. Then, the pick will be determined by the Seahawks’ finishing place in the postseason.
The Seahawks will miss the playoffs unless they win their Week 17 game against the Cardinals and the Panthers beat the Falcons.